Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16efc5bf9d87e110d253a66b1276dbc64b2a7b8fa880fc4e1e73fdae577dd4f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 75c | 1,749$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.29 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 41c | 1,612$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.11 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 5c | 905.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.21 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 727.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 51c | 389.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.84 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 307.79$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 293.48$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 74c | 272.85$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 17c | 236.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 74c | 182.03$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 34c | 161.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 139$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 130.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 54c | 130.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 130.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 118$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 117.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 66c | 114.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 112.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 65c | 106.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 106.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 45c | 103.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 44c | 102.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed Yes | 40c | 95.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 51c | 79.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 38c | 74.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 72.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 63c | 69.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 62c | 64.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 60c | 62.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 57c | 59.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 26c | 59.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 52.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 23c | 52.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 52.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 50.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 23c | 48.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…a73bbacked Yes | 76c | 35.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 59c | 32.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 50c | 30.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…2038backed Yes | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 52c | 23.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ae…f93abacked Yes | 75c | 22.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 63c | 17.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 15.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.