Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc72bf1b1e7c15d7ea06c770cfc4d6bed594dcabc54f740bb1a3686cfcd0173d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 6c | 1,070$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 70c | 544.71$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.71 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 67c | 442.8$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.36 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 35c | 402.35$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 281.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 4c | 280.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 19c | 249.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 232.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 227.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 38c | 225.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 215.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 167.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 18c | 161.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 7c | 160.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 140.05$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 133.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 30c | 128.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 30c | 124.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 8c | 123.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…99a5backed Yes | 34c | 117.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 117.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 60c | 114.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 56c | 112.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4f…7367backed Yes | 47c | 108.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 64c | 106.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 104.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 23c | 96.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 65c | 87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 85.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 21c | 83.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 17c | 77.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 75.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 16c | 70.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 79c | 54.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 52.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 41c | 48.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 48.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 46c | 44.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8572backed Yes | 47c | 42.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 32c | 36.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f0…8943backed Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 72c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 22.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…cbc4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 78c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.