Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77dd31700da3bccff1b9c25bd8ad0cb27bacc850f0c97ec0a1a0595697a913c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 1,450$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.62 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 3c | 1,079$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 36c | 290.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.45 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 22c | 208.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.24 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 194.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 185.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 15c | 171.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 39c | 165.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 161.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…8b12backed Yes | 74c | 142.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 54 | 88.9%48 W · 6 L | +12.5wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +40%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 129.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 125$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 21c | 124.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 112.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 109$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 79c | 108.79$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 99.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 99.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 94.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 80c | 84.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 21c | 81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 80.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 78.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 78.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 73.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 73.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 59c | 69.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 56.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 79c | 52.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 36.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 30.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 30.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 60c | 28.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 28.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 26.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…147cbacked No | 76c | 25.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 24.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 66c | 24.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 57c | 22.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 70c | 21.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 19.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 76c | 16.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 77c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.