MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77f805c938fb8d9a25fad475a8a30b1424308523d5673bb9cc165f48c38f0665
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 11,856$6,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,229.46 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 3,843$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 2,028$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 45c | 620.88$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.4 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 57c | 532.49$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.21 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 57c | 532.49$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.47 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 57c | 532.49$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.97 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 32c | 531.69$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.96 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 502.5$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 56c | 355$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 43c | 336.54$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 45c | 276$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 250.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 219$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 44c | 148.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 134.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 129.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under | 58c | 102.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 43c | 99.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 43c | 63.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 50.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 45c | 44.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…fcdfbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Under | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 57c | 25.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 57c | 24.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 45c | 22.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 56c | 22.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 56c | 20.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 1.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.