Australian A League · resolved market
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78182ee413fc4bb73d0c6787efae4d21a3d499cd91fdf69ab661a90fe9eeac13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,268 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked No | 73c | 10,000$7,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 26c | 9,878$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.26 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 7,411$4,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.34 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 5,116$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.14 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Yes | 34c | 4,388$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.92 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Yes | 66c | 2,514$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.46 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 41cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 59c | 2,234$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 35c | 1,485$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.86 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…3406backed Yes | 58c | 1,353$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 40c | 1,231$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.09 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 1,127$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.54 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 62c | 926.68$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…2526backed Yes | 73c | 909.09$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 873.64$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.15 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 23c | 673$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.79 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 20c | 603.31$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.65 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 74c | 515.64$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.06 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Yes | 66c | 490.91$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 40c | 450.48$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.08 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 78c | 363.1$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…f0efbacked No | 57c | 350$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 56c | 345.5$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Yes | 27c | 344.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…d94abacked Yes | 63c | 332.43$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked No | 63c | 320$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 27c | 293.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 33c | 286.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…e032backed No | 74c | 272.92$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked No | 72c | 269$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 52c | 257.77$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.87 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 71c | 256.36$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…f351backed Yes | 70c | 250.81$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d6…926ebacked Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes | 61c | 221.36$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…858fbacked No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 27c | 206.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 29c | 205.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 62c | 203.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 33c | 191.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…7b41backed Yes | 39c | 188.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 72c | 187.79$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 26c | 181.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 56c | 178.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…7155backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 26c | 149.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 32c | 140$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 38c | 138.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x434e…a62ebacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 20c | 132.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 33c | 107$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 26c | 96.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc644…1546backed Yes | 72c | 89.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 64c | 87.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Yes | 26c | 83.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 33c | 64.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -13.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Yes | 34c | 58.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…429cbacked No | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed Yes | 63c | 48.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 35c | 48.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 73c | 42.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +83%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed No | 74c | 39.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb012…0136backed No | 47c | 36.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd985…1125backed Yes | 45c | 25.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd3…4840backed Yes | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 68c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 65c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.