Bundesliga · resolved market
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x783ac65b3fa207627fd5e00087f10a13d95d08ef2ab7180bd615e1119b2c3edd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 19c | 12,074$2,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.55 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 75c | 3,847$2,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.75 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 33c | 3,699$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.48 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 3,413$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.84 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…ac13backed Yes | 34c | 2,955$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 2,134$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.77 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 67c | 1,822$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.98 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 78c | 1,602$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.4 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 68c | 913.01$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.73 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 72c | 848.13$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.75 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…7958backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Yes | 27c | 614.81$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 14c | 597.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 15c | 486.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Yes | 34c | 480$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcc…e083backed Yes | 17c | 478.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 80c | 438.39$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…80f9backed Yes | 6c | 388.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…cc73backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 54c | 308.89$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.77 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 33c | 303.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…057dbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 30c | 268.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…b339backed Yes | 22c | 213.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 47c | 212.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0ababacked Yes | 15c | 171.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 71c | 165.85$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…4508backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 76c | 150.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 19c | 149.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…e1babacked Yes | 28c | 147$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…fb99backed Yes | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 33c | 121.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…4aebbacked No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 77c | 116.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 116.15$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…79e1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 17c | 94.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb648…c2ddbacked Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 23c | 89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 79c | 88.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes | 36c | 68.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…583abacked Yes | 36c | 62.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 22c | 61.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes | 33c | 61.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Yes | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 72c | 47.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e16…41f8backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…150dbacked No | 68c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c3…5ce1backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ae…8a36backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…5211backed No | 70c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…4f81backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-02-01?No won
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.