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Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-02-01?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$176,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$193,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,086 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed Yes8c18,263$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.4675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30dd…cbfdbacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes16c9,960$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.093,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes33c5,281$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.7716060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked No78c5,217$4,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.38771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes34c4,602$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.512520%5 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes8c3,209$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.1476234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Yes7c3,194$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.582240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes8c3,180$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.741,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes36c2,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Yes33c2,542$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes17c2,538$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.372,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa42…2ff3backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-70.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes29c1,679$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.7811762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No67c1,557$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.253645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb263…6275backed No69c1,514$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.54580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Yes8c1,514$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10527726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed No70c1,403$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.663658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+58.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Yes10c1,354$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.89476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Yes1c1,274$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176142.6%26 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes7c1,200$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72e6…7bf4backed No57c1,075$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fcc…e083backed Yes33c1,015$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3342835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed No61c985.43$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.4317652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed No61c947$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.36768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Yes8c940$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.22412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-58.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No56c866.43$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.761,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No72c846.67$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.671,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5d…1a81backed Yes7c843.14$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes9c707.56$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.686851.5%35 W · 33 L+10.9wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes8c690.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.244749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes8c651$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.08911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes8c613.8$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.122829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x064e…4347backed Yes34c590.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick45cpaid-80.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes4c589$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2228241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc558…b8ffbacked Yes45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1d…9fe1backed Yes8c499$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f51…3f2fbacked Yes33c476.68$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.29475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick26cpaid+246.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe015…621fbacked Yes9c352.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Yes18c346.06$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6939558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No77c324$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.529532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7203…22d6backed No68c322.06$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.06366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2419446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes6c282.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.122332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Yes7c278.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.492846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d7…fe65backed Yes11c275.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes42c261.17$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6922669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Yes8c256.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216533.8%22 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes6c249.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed Yes10c201.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205215.4%8 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1838845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0272…ef18backed Yes36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a4…6e1abacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb485…f560backed Yes38c186.03$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.01742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes17c173.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e52…9078backed No59c170.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.882748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed No61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.933259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7104…8cffbacked Yes34c159.06$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.542339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3aa…7a89backed No63c153.89$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd40b…429abacked Yes33c152.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.45922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes8c150.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.045145.1%23 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes7c148.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.49721.6%21 W · 76 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed No63c147.69$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.649646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes38c147.69$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.733737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9817…28bcbacked No57c136.86$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.86944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb2…4954backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6b…5263backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+401.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes19c122.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7423842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476b…30a0backed No54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.21764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked No65c107.46$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4634655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed Yes29c104.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63d6…bafbbacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes21c98.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6111644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8724…b082backed No55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.912161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes46c88.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6711751.3%60 W · 57 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dec…be12backed Yes32c87.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c3…bdf4backed No62c80.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab6d…b458backed Yes43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.32633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed No57c70.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.339951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b2…fb99backed Yes41c61.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.82728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306c…51f2backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201580%12 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a46…ba91backed Yes33c57.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.988858%51 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes19c57.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed No74c55.64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4419254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf9a…336bbacked Yes45c51.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8674…2ababacked No66c45.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4160…e42dbacked No50c45.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.652729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84e5…2303backed Yes27c44.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x72ee…a848backed No66c43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6211556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9346…ea03backed No61c42.76$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.765246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No72c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8713139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed No54c22.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.275244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88ee…13d8backed No55c21.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.79742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c9…2bd8backed No65c19.9$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.91872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06f0…ad99backed No73c13.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.621376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+64.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.