Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x784e14932f09a26f0baae17f2bfbd8043f9d4711a46aa67fdc822d2bd5411052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 0c | 190,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 72c | 2,182$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.36 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 68c | 1,958$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.29 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Under | 71c | 1,392$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.59 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 22c | 1,249$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.46 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 28c | 1,107$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.83 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 1,038$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.09 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 29c | 732.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.34 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 709.65$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.51 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 73c | 547.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.95 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 30c | 525.05$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.33 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 27c | 411.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Under | 61c | 347$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.67 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Over | 18c | 326.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Over | 28c | 245.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed Under | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…2925backed Under | 72c | 183.33$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 29c | 183$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 71c | 174.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Over | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 31c | 141.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…ef4cbacked Over | 29c | 84.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 31c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 28c | 61.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f2…fe1bbacked Under | 72c | 61.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…ec49backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -12.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Over | 36c | 47.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 77c | 46.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 49c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 32c | 35.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 46cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…df2fbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 49c | 30.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 51c | 26.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 73c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 72c | 17.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…8f5ebacked Under | 72c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5this page
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5)FK Crvena zvezda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.