NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x787dbea86004ce94ebcdf41fe3702d39d69bf1f157c2ce57b8c98b39968de35e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Senators, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Senators | 44c | 7,297$3,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,086.16 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Sharks | 56c | 5,015$2,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,808.35 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sharks | 56c | 2,341$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.48 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…69e5backed Sharks | 57c | 550.51$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Senators | 43c | 511.31$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.45 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Senators | 42c | 501.62$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.22 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Senators | 38c | 409.12$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.32 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Senators | 56c | 271.16$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Sharks | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Senators | 45c | 241.51$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.83 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Sharks | 57c | 241.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.46 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Senators | 44c | 227.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.34 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Senators | 44c | 224.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.97 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf906…b98ebacked Sharks | 25c | 200.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…e16abacked Sharks | 58c | 172.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Senators | 34c | 158.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.94 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sharks | 60c | 157$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Sharks | 57c | 141$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Senators | 44c | 123.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Sharks | 58c | 121.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sharks | 53c | 117.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Senators | 26c | 111.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Sharks | 56c | 103.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Sharks | 56c | 97.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Senators | 42c | 95.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Sharks | 53c | 89.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Sharks | 53c | 76.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Senators | 39c | 73.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Senators | 45c | 60.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Sharks | 53c | 60.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Senators | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sharks | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…4c28backed Senators | 44c | 39.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…1f5ebacked Senators | 45c | 38.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Sharks | 54c | 36.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Sharks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Sharks | 58c | 33.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd827…fe79backed Senators | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Sharks | 57c | 31.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…b214backed Senators | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Senators | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Senators | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Sharks | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Sharks | 56c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sharks | 76c | 17.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Sharks vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.