NHL · resolved market
Sharks vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47c3f2d668bdb156eef33d337c99d1d10da0ffeb428c4bee5531505572d252bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,230 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x772e…c442backed Under | 52c | 10,426$5,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,370.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…0880backed Over | 50c | 8,600$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e0…4659backed Under | 50c | 8,600$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 5,158$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,639.37 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 50c | 4,639$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.47 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 50c | 3,991$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.5 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 3,488$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.66 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 3,333$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.83 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 1,683$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.09 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 1,379$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.49 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 52c | 1,165$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.94 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 51c | 1,090$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.15 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 69c | 1,024$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.94 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Under | 51c | 990.64$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.23 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 49c | 813.28$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.51 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 27c | 742.05$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.6 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…9740backed Under | 51c | 693.8$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 50c | 490$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…8f8cbacked Over | 50c | 428$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.62 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 49c | 346$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.46 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 345.32$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 255.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 33c | 212.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642e…063bbacked Over | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 179.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Over | 69c | 116.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 49c | 92.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 50c | 89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 88.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Over | 51c | 74.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…f12abacked Under | 49c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…091cbacked Over | 51c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Under | 34c | 43.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Over | 58c | 40.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 48c | 37.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 51c | 30.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Under | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 45c | 22.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 51c | 20.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 74c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sharks vs. Senators: O/U 6.5this page
- Sharks vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Sharks vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.