Weather · resolved market
Will the U.S. weekly flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 29 be exactly 0.1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78866d26ad794b5a15d2f2f1f9cd361b53b31ae63d78b7ccb2e9413ff77682a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 97.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…d327backed Yes | 42c | 82.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9485…fc90backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 39.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 65c | 36.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 64c | 30.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 26.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 79c | 24.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. weekly flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 29 be exactly 0.1?this page
- Will the U.S. weekly flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 29 be greater than 0.1?No won
- Will the U.S. weekly flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 29 be less than 0.1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.