Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x789b65cab2f0e5d46c3d4034376bd1325f9551ab85ac80e61b1ddae82abcc784
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,644 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 0c | 16,010$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 66c | 1,266$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.27 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 65c | 900.84$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.56 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 4c | 552.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 74c | 549.92$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.15 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 74c | 324.75$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.52 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 78c | 319.19$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.89 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 310.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…29a6backed No | 43c | 257.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 35c | 239.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.49 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 56c | 229.72$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 229$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 224.88$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed Yes | 48c | 221.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 27c | 206.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 34c | 199.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 27c | 199.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 31c | 187.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 178$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 63c | 159.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 28c | 158.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 47c | 143.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 26c | 117.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 115.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 20c | 113.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa269…be11backed No | 21c | 98.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 38c | 94.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 56c | 80.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 42c | 71.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 49c | 69.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 80c | 66.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 64.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 58c | 63.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 64c | 60.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…ec6ebacked Yes | 34c | 59.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 51c | 59.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 58c | 57.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 22c | 54.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…b7d4backed Yes | 60c | 53.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 50.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 70c | 49.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 36c | 48.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 34c | 47.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 46.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…90a8backed Yes | 49c | 45.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…fdd3backed No | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 53c | 43.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 50c | 40.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 76c | 35.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd467…d7a8backed No | 38c | 34.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 40c | 34.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…935bbacked Yes | 65c | 32.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…370dbacked Yes | 71c | 31.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 40c | 30.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 66c | 30.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…5a81backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 51c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…2860backed Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 51c | 26.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 68c | 25.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 45c | 25.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 67c | 25.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…8a70backed Yes | 49c | 21.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 21.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 80c | 18.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…6373backed No | 69c | 16.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…a6c1backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.