NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7902502524f96606b098b7a70e0a5a78a03357e938b2ee529483953af3ecca68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 46c | 5,497$2,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,528.62 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 2,691$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.4 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 2,074$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.43 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 75c | 2,032$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.47 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 25c | 1,970$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.5 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 8c | 1,125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 55c | 1,111$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.94 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 55c | 938.93$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.91 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 45c | 328$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.17 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 72c | 183.18$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 45c | 171.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 46c | 158.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 55c | 131.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 55c | 84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 51c | 70.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 45c | 67.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Over | 39c | 61.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Over | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 43c | 48.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 61c | 33.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 55c | 33.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…73debacked Over | 45c | 32.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…c637backed Under | 75c | 23.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Over | 45c | 22.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 67c | 21.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5564…b806backed Under | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. BruinsLightning won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.