NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63ce381a0dd9670d111dba8373966aab4e9fb2f1425d07baf4141ff8815c2b93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bruinsof Lightning, Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Lightning | 33c | 3,025$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.25 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bruins | 67c | 2,002$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.37 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…7286backed Lightning | 15c | 1,294$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.59 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 32c | 1,049$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.74 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Bruins | 68c | 509.35$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.99 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Lightning | 50c | 297.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bruins | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bruins | 68c | 229.75$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…a8ebbacked Bruins | 69c | 227.61$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Bruins | 67c | 213.37$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bruins | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 32c | 189.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Bruins | 68c | 188.47$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Bruins | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Bruins | 48c | 143.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…b78dbacked Bruins | 69c | 133$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lightning | 8c | 126.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Bruins | 69c | 118.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba83…4f66backed Bruins | 74c | 99.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bruins | 68c | 90.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…ae58backed Lightning | 31c | 88.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Lightning | 32c | 86.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Lightning | 35c | 85.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Bruins | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Bruins | 69c | 59.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Bruins | 67c | 49.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Lightning | 32c | 46.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…abe9backed Bruins | 73c | 42.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cbcdbacked Lightning | 31c | 39.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Bruins | 76c | 37.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Bruins | 68c | 29.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Bruins | 70c | 28.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Bruins | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Bruins | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. BruinsLightning won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.