NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21a455c7bbef1d888f92f8ff16e25d0c77d6afa01498ee83b7bcd1c12e7c11cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 3,127$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.65 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…1608backed Over | 58c | 2,606$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 948.28$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 837.52$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.39 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 586.21$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.82 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 57c | 337.3$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.21 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 327.68$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.27 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f3…87ddbacked Under | 44c | 269$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…7d17backed Over | 57c | 225$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 30c | 214.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked Over | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Over | 57c | 126.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 45c | 122.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…23f1backed Over | 58c | 110.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 11c | 105.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…ccc9backed Over | 57c | 103.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Over | 56c | 99.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 136 | 52.9%72 W · 64 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Over | 57c | 92.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 90.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 42c | 73.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 44c | 65.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 58c | 62.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 59.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 38c | 58.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Over | 57c | 58.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8587…acaabacked Under | 44c | 54.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 45c | 50.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 43c | 49.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 42c | 46.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…5e6fbacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked Under | 46c | 42.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…a7b7backed Over | 48c | 36.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 70c | 36.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…f42bbacked Over | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 58c | 30.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8a…1589backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Over | 55c | 28.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 43c | 27.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 26.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…3affbacked Over | 57c | 26.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…73debacked Over | 57c | 25.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 44c | 23.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 76c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. BruinsLightning won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.