South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x790760c60462201b82a5b83d99f073a9046e0dbfe6cd91eac2f7c000fe335258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 10c | 5,809$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.89 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 19c | 2,698$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.34 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 17c | 2,024$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.41 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Under | 16c | 1,255$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 106 | 35.8%38 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 13c | 890.48$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.72 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 15c | 806.87$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed Under | 12c | 608.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…564dbacked Under | 19c | 600.24$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe602…f92cbacked Under | 11c | 501.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…8620backed Under | 14c | 488.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 13c | 475.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.84 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 12c | 404.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…7843backed Under | 23c | 324.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 10c | 241.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…b50ebacked Over | 77c | 212.96$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…8974backed Over | 80c | 186.86$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Over | 79c | 149.01$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Over | 79c | 149.01$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef96…ba46backed Over | 80c | 137.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Over | 21c | 116.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 15c | 93.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…216abacked Under | 20c | 87.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 78c | 19.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Over | 80c | 14.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5this page
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Club Bolívar O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Grêmio FBPA O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Grêmio FBPA O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Grêmio FBPA O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Club Bolívar won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)Club Bolívar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.