South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b28b431b9274d7a0eea55e0c951ff0984a0e20daa8924b33378e93409a380dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grêmio FBPAof Club Bolívar, Grêmio FBPA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Grêmio FBPA | 46c | 20,782$9,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,208.74 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Club Bolívar | 60c | 20,331$12,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,158.09 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbe…1f4ebacked Club Bolívar | 38c | 7,582$2,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,881.32 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -5.6wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -70%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed Club Bolívar | 38c | 5,242$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.9 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Grêmio FBPA | 62c | 1,998$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.19 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grêmio FBPA | 63c | 1,685$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.59 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Grêmio FBPA | 42c | 1,592$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.2 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Grêmio FBPA | 44c | 1,439$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.84 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Grêmio FBPA | 62c | 1,200$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Grêmio FBPA | 44c | 955.8$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.19 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Grêmio FBPA | 62c | 806$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.28 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Grêmio FBPA | 62c | 806$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.28 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Grêmio FBPA | 65c | 806$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.73 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grêmio FBPA | 45c | 589.25$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.41 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked Club Bolívar | 57c | 518.2$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.53 | 82 | 68.3%56 W · 26 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Grêmio FBPA | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Grêmio FBPA | 62c | 500$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.49 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Club Bolívar | 33c | 470$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 198 | 41.9%83 W · 115 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Grêmio FBPA | 49c | 449.03$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.21 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Grêmio FBPA | 66c | 431$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b4d2backed Club Bolívar | 39c | 406.28$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Grêmio FBPA | 39c | 351.79$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.59 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Club Bolívar | 45c | 276.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Club Bolívar | 67c | 261.07$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.92 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Club Bolívar | 58c | 240$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Grêmio FBPA | 65c | 239.57$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Grêmio FBPA | 42c | 231.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.21 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Club Bolívar | 34c | 228.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Club Bolívar | 35c | 221.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 59 | 72.9%43 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Grêmio FBPA | 42c | 189.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.12 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Grêmio FBPA | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…2b48backed Grêmio FBPA | 62c | 158.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Club Bolívar | 60c | 150.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Grêmio FBPA | 49c | 145.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Club Bolívar | 63c | 131.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866c…19c0backed Club Bolívar | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Club Bolívar | 24c | 125.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Club Bolívar | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Grêmio FBPA | 55c | 95.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 168 | 64.9%109 W · 59 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Grêmio FBPA | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Club Bolívar | 45c | 77.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grêmio FBPA | 72c | 74.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…06f0backed Club Bolívar | 40c | 62.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Grêmio FBPA | 62c | 62.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Grêmio FBPA | 37c | 62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Club Bolívar | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Grêmio FBPA | 63c | 59.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 406 | 51%207 W · 199 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Grêmio FBPA | 67c | 59.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Grêmio FBPA | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Club Bolívar | 39c | 50.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Club Bolívar | 44c | 49.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Club Bolívar | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2dfabacked Grêmio FBPA | 46c | 31.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Grêmio FBPA | 57c | 26.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Grêmio FBPA | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)this page
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Club Bolívar O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Grêmio FBPA O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Grêmio FBPA O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Grêmio FBPA O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Club Bolívar won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)Club Bolívar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.