South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x211b62795c3a258f3051e8387eeb4fa24677f9d12abbc6ba1c1c02754328be5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb763…cce5backed Under | 70c | 1,214$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.99 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 30c | 1,001$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.06 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…fa78backed Under | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.92 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 42c | 914.03$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.3 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 794.3$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.11 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218b…625abacked Under | 56c | 790.88$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 762.61$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.69 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 47c | 733$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.84 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 28c | 550$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 48c | 439.5$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.26 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Under | 72c | 411.11$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…7047backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 286.11$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.33 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 42c | 271$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.84 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 46c | 249$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.46 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 46c | 235.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.23 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…2b48backed Under | 70c | 140.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 139.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…85fbbacked Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 50c | 112.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 30c | 108.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 53c | 83.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 68c | 75.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 30c | 59.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 57.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 30c | 47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 70c | 38.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 48c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5this page
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Club Bolívar O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Grêmio FBPA O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Grêmio FBPA O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: Grêmio FBPA O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Club Bolívar won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)Club Bolívar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.