Tweets · resolved market
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7916e98530fc3d1dced248c8e3d6efd3183dac3d310d765717470afb224fbc2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,558$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 46c | 1,082$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.85 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 13c | 701.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 49c | 509.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 33c | 486.59$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.31 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e223backed No | 63c | 476.41$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 56c | 472.79$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.04 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 71c | 466.15$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.68 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 49c | 431.89$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 52c | 410$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 69c | 340.38$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.7 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 42c | 316$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.92 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…b4e0backed No | 63c | 257.47$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed No | 49c | 212.42$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed No | 50c | 197.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 49c | 191.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 40c | 190.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.87 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 54c | 185.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed No | 65c | 176.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 49c | 175.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 27c | 172.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 49c | 169.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 62c | 161.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…b932backed No | 60c | 160$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 48c | 158.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed No | 72c | 139.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…a7c9backed No | 33c | 126$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 51c | 104.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 49c | 91.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 65c | 90.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed No | 63c | 87.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed No | 49c | 74.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…e892backed No | 71c | 70.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5131…2541backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 45c | 63.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 56.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 56c | 53.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 39c | 51.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…1eb4backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…75a6backed No | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed No | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…8f57backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586a…1cafbacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5d…b48abacked No | 64c | 28.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…df44backed No | 72c | 27.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…9f71backed No | 59c | 22.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef99…090cbacked No | 51c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.