MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79327088f2e2df03a49aca6771f3dd052b36e3e66828f10234823881eeec78a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f21…0ec5backed Under | 40c | 14,857$5,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,924.61 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 59c | 14,843$8,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,763.05 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Under | 39c | 1,696$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.3 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 55c | 1,300$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 61c | 1,071$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.21 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 58c | 814.58$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.58 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 60c | 712.72$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.63 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 584.46$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.16 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 60c | 520$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.54 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 58c | 501.93$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.12 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 404.24$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.55 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 12c | 175.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 26c | 155$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 61c | 143.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 43c | 135$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 56c | 130.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 109.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c78…bf00backed Over | 58c | 108.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 59cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 42c | 73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…dbfdbacked Under | 50c | 51.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 48c | 44.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 46c | 44.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 42c | 42.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 44c | 41.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 52c | 35.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 41c | 32.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…b4fabacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 62c | 29.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 58c | 24.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 52c | 23.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 61c | 22.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…d1cebacked Under | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 60c | 20.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…cae4backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 61c | 18.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.