TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$563,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$563,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $563,012 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f21…0ec5backed Under50c285,768$141,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144,302.452352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over50c180,000$89,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,399.1455053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Under53c153,622$81,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,831.9186548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over48c151,839$72,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,580.972,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over50c65,814$32,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,867.1811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over46c36,170$16,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,638.27550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under52c15,491$8,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,435.6892054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e3…e736backed Over46c15,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,9004742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over50c10,759$5,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,346.0459549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over50c9,804$4,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,902.031,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74cb…afe6backed Under52c6,330$3,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over46c5,437$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.981,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over44c5,282$2,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,329.618,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0e…6257backed Under52c4,469$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,145.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Over53c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00019053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a6…c8d3backed Under54c3,295$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,527.199350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4401752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over49c2,741$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.786,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over49c2,249$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.0765549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over50c2,118$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.641,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under50c2,104$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.639041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over51c2,007$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.491,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Under47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over48c1,986$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.281,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over52c1,959$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.052,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Over46c1,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6909262%57 W · 35 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Over46c1,400$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6448643%37 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over51c1,295$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.955,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over50c1,253$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.11,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x598e…0d75backed Over46c1,228$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over51c1,100$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5616746.3%31 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb56…c1bcbacked Over46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Over51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50038353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9283…ba85backed Over52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-46.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Under48c822.8$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.861844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over44c800$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35286653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under52c673.98$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.5127249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a99…8210backed Over50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Over46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2767048.6%34 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over51c593.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.593,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Over48c520.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25022450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Over49c510.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25024350.6%123 W · 120 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3e…88a4backed Over51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over50c500$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.261,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c4…bdc7backed Over47c483.41$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over51c463.81$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.5467444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Over47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006360.3%38 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Over40c402.33$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0840148.1%193 W · 208 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under52c362$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.761,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1548…fe8ebacked Over42c339.79$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.714553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over50c300$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15149450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Over49c275.54$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1354152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Under52c213$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2413452.2%70 W · 64 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024950.6%126 W · 123 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked Over47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011244.6%50 W · 62 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4559…1c26backed Under52c208$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.842045%9 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Under52c201.92$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.924450%22 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over45c199.64$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0482551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over52c195$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.41,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Under52c188.42$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.446855.9%38 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over46c188.05$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.896,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Under54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1924646.7%115 W · 131 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x959b…64edbacked Over53c170$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.13253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Over49c164.45$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7129553.2%157 W · 138 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e46…42dfbacked Over49c163.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9817250.6%87 W · 85 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over48c157$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.271,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Over48c148.94$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5950954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3704…5487backed Over48c140.12$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5615349.7%76 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over49c136.64$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0134452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Over52c135.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2128154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over51c128.85$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.714,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Over47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6031052.6%163 W · 147 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over46c125.66$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.18,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9101…78ddbacked Under80c120$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.12766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over29c106.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over35c105.22$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ad…dffebacked Over48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53db…480ebacked Over50c104$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.563844.7%17 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5261948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6c…c407backed Over52c94.46$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.122853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c78…bf00backed Over47c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.45per pick59cpaid-77.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.75,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a8f…f793backed Over49c79.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.37837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Under50c72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3617645.5%80 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under57c69.16$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9433032.7%108 W · 222 L-22.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Under50c65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.54557.8%26 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa20d…eadebacked Over47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020446.6%95 W · 109 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6be…f675backed Over47c63.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Over47c63.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0111553%61 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cd7…8e4abacked Over49c61.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under52c58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8472247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over49c57.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47d5…138ebacked Under54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.568948.3%43 W · 46 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1833…1e48backed Over47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c9e…8e90backed Over49c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.614146.1%65 W · 76 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Over48c49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.523464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Under49c47.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3914245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.