Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x796634b23e696ba36f92751d327357eb6a2cc2fb2975ec7112592c0edf12dd12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 6,004$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 4c | 1,212$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 1,100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 4c | 954.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,730 | 18%311 W · 1,419 L | +73.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 33c | 742.09$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.3 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 4c | 494.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…b064backed No | 4c | 488.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 362.35$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 321.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.72 | 1,515 | 15.4%234 W · 1,281 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 4c | 275.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 660 | 24.4%161 W · 499 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 242.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 6c | 196.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.56 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 184.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 58c | 171.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked No | 34c | 155.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 50c | 132.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 238 | 73.1%174 W · 64 L | +28.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 24c | 126.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 40c | 102.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | +31.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +218.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…3f04backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 50c | 95.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 80c | 93.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 36c | 86.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 85.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 82.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 71.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 66.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 23c | 66.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,327 | 34.1%452 W · 875 L | +46.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 57c | 31.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…ebd0backed Yes | 71c | 23.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…c0e7backed Yes | 68c | 19.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 76c | 19.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 74c | 19.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C or higher on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 9°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.