NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7991c469b6a9341a4edab9833ba19fb61cfc320aae585693f96072324ce82641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Bulls, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Bulls | 49c | 19,369$9,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,552.8 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 51c | 9,157$4,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,496.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pacers | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 51c | 3,927$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers | 50c | 3,184$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.82 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers | 50c | 2,812$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.63 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Pacers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Pacers | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0fc6backed Pacers | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 51c | 535$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.24 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 57c | 485$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pacers | 51c | 320.83$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Pacers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Bulls | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Pacers | 47c | 180.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bulls | 51c | 162.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Bulls | 53c | 103.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Pacers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Pacers | 52c | 68.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bulls | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Bulls | 53c | 36.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pacers | 51c | 34.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…24a5backed Bulls | 52c | 33.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefd5…f95ebacked Bulls | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Pacers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Pacers won
- Bulls vs. PacersPacers won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 242.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 243.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.