NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9fbbb73c34025a5f7a3f5a265f96bb8125589b99bcec5493a9f7a4a64310d6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Bulls, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Pacers | 52c | 7,274$3,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,491.28 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Pacers | 53c | 6,092$3,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,854.3 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Bulls | 48c | 3,880$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.4 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pacers | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…c564backed Bulls | 44c | 2,686$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Bulls | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.95 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Pacers | 58c | 1,879$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.31 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Bulls | 42c | 1,879$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.31 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Bulls | 30c | 1,644$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.98 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Bulls | 48c | 1,314$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.52 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 46c | 1,219$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.55 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…f73bbacked Pacers | 52c | 1,040$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.2 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed Bulls | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Bulls | 46c | 929.99$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.79 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Bulls | 45c | 891.99$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.39 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…dc8dbacked Bulls | 48c | 834.24$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.58 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bulls | 47c | 644$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.68 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bulls | 47c | 637.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Pacers | 54c | 572$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.12 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Pacers | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Pacers | 60c | 499.99$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Bulls | 46c | 489.13$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Pacers | 55c | 457.66$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.66 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 47c | 435$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.17 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed Bulls | 47c | 404.26$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…8152backed Bulls | 37c | 389.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls | 47c | 365$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.79 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 47c | 362.15$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Pacers | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 58c | 293.81$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Bulls | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Bulls | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bulls | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bulls | 46c | 199.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Pacers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pacers | 55c | 177.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Bulls | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Pacers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 46c | 166$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…6ccdbacked Pacers | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Pacers | 68c | 131$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Bulls | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Bulls | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Bulls | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Pacers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Bulls | 47c | 89.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…82e0backed Bulls | 46c | 89.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77d…aa76backed Bulls | 46c | 84.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2e…ff2cbacked Pacers | 54c | 82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 34c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…dcf4backed Pacers | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd375…e1ecbacked Bulls | 46c | 58.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Bulls | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Bulls | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b1…f012backed Pacers | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Bulls | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bulls | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Bulls | 39c | 40.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…8046backed Pacers | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Bulls | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 42c | 34.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Pacers won
- Bulls vs. PacersPacers won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 242.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 243.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.