MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79985b3af15674f16a40ab9d76a82b97eab06c4693a16943cb660a60023491d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Houston Astros | 63c | 3,048$1,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.81 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 2,282$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.09 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 2,200$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.03 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 2,135$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.43 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 1,975$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 1,180$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.59 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 64c | 1,168$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.63 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 1,149$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.04 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,053$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.14 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 880$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 604.82$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.27 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 538$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Houston Astros | 60c | 384.7$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.88 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 221.74$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.36 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Houston Astros | 62c | 201.02$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 122.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…c5a4backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 109.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 53.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 46.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Houston Astros | 63c | 36.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Houston Astros | 68c | 35.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 35.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 34.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Houston Astros | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 30.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 27.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989d…5ca1backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Houston Astros | 63c | 20.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 60c | 18.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati RedsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.