South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-07-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79a4c5761341df5f376ab3ac2a8f281b2ef8f8513d6ce166228b137610164ccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 17c | 11,827$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.08 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 71c | 6,317$4,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.44 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 23c | 6,108$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.96 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…5cc8backed No | 80c | 3,500$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed No | 71c | 3,071$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.1 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Yes | 13c | 2,439$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.91 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,190$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…96e1backed Yes | 11c | 1,136$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 78c | 1,121$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.73 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 1,116$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.85 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 925.43$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.84 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed Yes | 14c | 918.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 1c | 906.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 47c | 677.23$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.28 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed No | 45c | 402.82$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.37 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 21c | 387$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 27c | 316.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed Yes | 32c | 287.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 45c | 283.03$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.43 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…fcbbbacked Yes | 30c | 265.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 186 | 31.2%58 W · 128 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 156 | 25.6%40 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked No | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 46c | 157.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 36c | 150.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 71c | 145.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 79c | 139.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 11c | 137$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 80c | 95.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 14c | 93.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Yes | 21c | 90.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 70c | 83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 20c | 79.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 79c | 79.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 57c | 75.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…6e6abacked Yes | 20c | 73.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1f…233dbacked Yes | 19c | 66.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Yes | 29c | 64.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 22c | 53.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 79c | 52.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed No | 79c | 50.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 79cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf192…d997backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 72c | 48.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 77cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8b…b723backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…529ebacked No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 80c | 30.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 80c | 29.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…0289backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…7eeebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…e3c6backed Yes | 57c | 20.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…db73backed No | 80c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-07-23?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-07-23?Yes won
- Will CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.