South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a4e68ca9d6be73c17faf96477920cadf8f4ac37652e2cc1db6670df4b987799
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 53c | 5,267$2,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,806.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 39c | 2,385$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.13 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 66c | 2,291$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.84 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 30c | 1,425$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.3 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,190$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.16 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 39c | 1,097$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.98 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 13c | 906.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.74 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 60c | 873$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.89 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 59c | 397.59$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.58 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 69c | 330.55$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.77 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 10c | 294.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 47c | 259.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 156 | 25.6%40 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 61c | 244.85$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 49c | 238.45$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.73 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 210.96$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…facfbacked Yes | 11c | 185.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 165.12$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 18c | 146.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 34c | 140.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…dc0bbacked Yes | 75c | 132.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 24c | 108.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 47c | 98.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 60c | 95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed No | 61c | 90.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 18c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 36c | 68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 52c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 47c | 60.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…bbd2backed Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 36c | 41.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 39.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked No | 50c | 36.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 59c | 35.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed No | 42c | 30.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 70c | 28.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 67c | 28.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 66c | 27.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bd…4c1fbacked Yes | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 61c | 18.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 76c | 18.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked No | 71c | 16.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Sarmiento vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-07-23?Yes won
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-07-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.