Earnings · resolved market
Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79b0eb322006bcbdb3586c4cc8bdf62c79da7a37d1e2972e4450872e3fa59900
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 2,275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 31c | 795.28$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.79 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 72c | 729.66$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.48 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Yes | 48c | 682.32$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e98…a8e6backed No | 67c | 597.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…e5eebacked Yes | 41c | 583.78$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.27 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 62c | 313.18$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 299.98$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 32c | 298.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed No | 77c | 259.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 26c | 233.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 203.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 25c | 192.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 34c | 172.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 34c | 172.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked No | 74c | 151.14$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 38c | 148.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 8c | 133.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 66c | 126.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 29c | 125.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 36c | 123.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 27c | 99.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 47c | 89.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 52c | 67.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53a…8dc7backed No | 73c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…14fcbacked No | 73c | 54.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 63c | 47.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…e63dbacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…3bc0backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…b623backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…ede8backed Yes | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5236backed No | 64c | 27.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 42c | 26.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376e…d63dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.