NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79b9dbb10ad90f5acd4e9a2faeb855acb0de2996b12461d214b1d9012ec9877f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 49c | 88,165$43,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,200.61 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…d660backed Over | 51c | 19,541$9,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,575.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2964backed Over | 51c | 11,847$6,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,805.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 11,487$6,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,439.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…dd41backed Over | 51c | 11,406$5,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,588.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Over | 51c | 10,377$5,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,084.97 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…d53cbacked Over | 51c | 9,643$4,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,725.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,410 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,410 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 46c | 5,319$2,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,446.82 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.88 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 46c | 930$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.8 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 48c | 742.45$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.38 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 430.11$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.15 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Over | 52c | 384.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.63 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 52c | 234$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Over | 52c | 198.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…da58backed Over | 52c | 117.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Over | 52c | 107.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 58.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 80c | 56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 31.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 56c | 27.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Over | 52c | 19.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…4f76backed Over | 80c | 12.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Hawks vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.