NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e71768dd3923adbdae7521751b603a47eeac5d5d71833d690a568179a38e4d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 45c | 5,198$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,351.74 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250.06 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 46c | 4,634$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,504.7 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 44c | 3,963$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Under | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 48c | 3,058$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.88 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 1,798$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.04 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 1,536$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 53c | 1,502$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.94 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 51c | 1,245$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.28 | 277 | 35%97 W · 180 L | -30.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 1,036$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.68 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Under | 53c | 902.92$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.55 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 55c | 895.99$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.8 | 577 | 60.5%349 W · 228 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 45c | 700.77$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.42 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 45c | 432$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.6 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 46c | 324$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.96 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 55c | 299$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.93 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 253.94$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 49c | 250$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 183.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…7f4cbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Over | 53c | 171.3$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 45c | 159$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 46c | 112$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 46c | 81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 48c | 52.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…d9f0backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Under | 55c | 45.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -12.3wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 49c | 31.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 68c | 23.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 56c | 23.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…c02abacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 51c | 19.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Hawks vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.