NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d1cae394c25469acc42cfa3cf38ddeed9bf5f1befa4085f0029809a115ba259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors | 56c | 5,386$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,385.94 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Raptors | 56c | 4,186$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.75 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks | 52c | 3,384$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors | 51c | 3,230$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.39 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 46c | 3,149$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.65 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…3292backed Raptors | 51c | 2,298$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.78 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawks | 48c | 2,117$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 49c | 1,973$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.35 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hawks | 44c | 1,786$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.78 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 43c | 1,718$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed Hawks | 52c | 1,530$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acb…d2c7backed Raptors | 56c | 928.57$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.57 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 44c | 919.32$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.82 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 53c | 794.63$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Hawks | 44c | 763.69$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.02 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hawks | 44c | 615.61$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.87 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Raptors | 55c | 564$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.75 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks | 44c | 475.06$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.03 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Raptors | 52c | 447.23$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Raptors | 50c | 426.14$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.69 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Hawks | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Raptors | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors | 56c | 395.36$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Hawks | 44c | 341$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Raptors | 53c | 322.11$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.39 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Hawks | 48c | 309$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hawks | 49c | 298.59$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Raptors | 51c | 211.12$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.34 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Hawks | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Raptors | 53c | 188.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.87 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Hawks | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors | 57c | 156.64$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Raptors | 57c | 155.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Hawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Hawks | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Hawks | 44c | 97.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Hawks | 47c | 95.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Hawks | 45c | 94.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Raptors | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 268 | 42.9%115 W · 153 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Raptors | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Raptors | 48c | 82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Raptors | 51c | 78.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…6df7backed Hawks | 45c | 76.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hawks | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Hawks | 47c | 55.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Hawks | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554f…afb4backed Hawks | 44c | 50.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Raptors | 50c | 49.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Raptors | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Hawks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Hawks | 46c | 40.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…f897backed Raptors | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hawks | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6931…89cabacked Hawks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Hawks | 51c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Raptors | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Hawks | 46c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Hawks | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Hawks | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Hawks | 45c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…5136backed Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eed…270bbacked Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Hawks | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Hawks vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.