NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fe0688801f7d87b2074b55da0efbfa0d6db3bc41a42ce6bb57807917e537ba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Raptors | 56c | 3,872$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.08 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 43c | 3,340$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.28 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 56c | 3,071$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…4362backed Raptors | 54c | 1,050$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Raptors | 55c | 900$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.3 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Hawks | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…d5b3backed Hawks | 46c | 550$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Raptors | 60c | 533.9$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.9 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…b4cfbacked Hawks | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Hawks | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780c…7921backed Hawks | 42c | 261.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 43c | 261.9$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors | 58c | 256.9$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8315…1126backed Hawks | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Hawks | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 45c | 134.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Hawks | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hawks | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Raptors | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Raptors | 57c | 88.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Raptors | 56c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Hawks | 44c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Hawks | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Hawks | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Hawks | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Hawks | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Hawks | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Hawks | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e88ebacked Raptors | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Hawks | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Hawks | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hawks | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Raptors | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Raptors | 55c | 27.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Hawks | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Hawks | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Raptors | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawks | 45c | 23.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Hawks vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.