Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79d470f132bda0f52f8e251f78785cb14b80f661a0891718067101058cd10712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,148$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 57c | 470.34$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.42 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 327.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.23 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 57c | 197.45$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 192$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 74c | 187.16$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.57 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 22c | 186.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 19c | 179.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 52c | 174.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 28c | 149.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 33c | 131.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 32c | 129.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 128.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 120$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 115.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 79c | 109.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 105$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 42c | 92.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 64c | 87.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…6ddfbacked No | 60c | 74.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked Yes | 62c | 73.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 71.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 70.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 80c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 65c | 61.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 60.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 61c | 53.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 54c | 51.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 35c | 50.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 51c | 49.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 38c | 48.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 43c | 47.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 41c | 42.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 42.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 41.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 39.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 37.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 58c | 36.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 58c | 34.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 47c | 33.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 30.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 25.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 61c | 24.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 59c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 72c | 13.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.