Earnings · resolved market
Will Applovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79e400ae710d4696ff8a750bd77ab3b5bc69ffe804cfa11c94f8de43eb13d4e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 6c | 35,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 7c | 4,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed No | 13c | 3,122$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…c0bebacked No | 9c | 2,719$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 6c | 2,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 12c | 1,639$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.43 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 15c | 1,100$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.86 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 11c | 1,079$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…8b22backed No | 7c | 875$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 8c | 699.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed No | 16c | 529.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 11c | 421.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 13c | 399.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 5c | 333.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 16c | 316.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 10c | 296.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 12c | 275.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…cb84backed No | 17c | 249.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 14c | 241.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 15c | 237.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 15c | 236.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf63e…d3afbacked No | 12c | 230$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 17c | 225.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed No | 7c | 215.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…de91backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…eb4fbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3230…3fbebacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 13c | 176.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed No | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 13c | 152.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked No | 16c | 146.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 13c | 141.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 120.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 13c | 112$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 12c | 108.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa1…3c07backed No | 14c | 100.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…ebc3backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 14c | 96.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed No | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…dd0fbacked No | 16c | 62.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…1fc1backed No | 17c | 60.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed Yes | 70c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.