World Politics · resolved market
Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 municipal election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79e8106a7ae364b35b4bb5081a69e9da22ac15ee8b0102811bc3f500e99c6b61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,683 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 14c | 2,846$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.75 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 12c | 1,098$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 15c | 908$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 535$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…3ab8backed Yes | 13c | 384$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 14c | 311.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…22e9backed Yes | 4c | 263.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +246.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 14c | 238.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 206.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 14c | 139.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 13c | 131.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 10c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ce…f240backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed Yes | 13c | 99.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 91.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 13c | 87.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 municipal election?this page
- Will Forum for Democracy (FvD) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 municipal election?No won
- Will GroenLinks–Labour Party (GL–PvdA) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 municipal election?No won
- Will Heart for The Hague (HvDH) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 municipal election?Yes won
- Will the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 municipal election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.