Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79f1878d58f00ab0ddca23ace1adef1d1a916d1bb7fd6e54b3b70e78192344f1

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Zero Tenacity
Resolved: Apr 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,227 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Yellow Submarine	53c	8,220$4,374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,845.83	545	56.5%308 W · 237 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Zero Tenacity	49c	3,624$1,779 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,778.63	400	51.5%206 W · 194 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Yellow Submarine	73c	2,926$2,136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$790.04	714	54.5%389 W · 325 L	+55.6wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yellow Submarine	66c	2,220$1,454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$765.14	869	49%426 W · 443 L	-3.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Zero Tenacity	28c	1,828$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.38	368	51.6%190 W · 178 L	+25.7wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe207…56c7backed Zero Tenacity	28c	1,718$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.47	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine	58c	1,346$787 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$558.65	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Zero Tenacity	44c	1,313$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.43	517	51.3%265 W · 252 L	+21.8wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Zero Tenacity	48c	1,234$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.9	242	51.7%125 W · 117 L	+21.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Zero Tenacity	45c	1,020$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.6	696	44.5%310 W · 386 L	-3.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Zero Tenacity	38c	999.99$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	462	40.7%188 W · 274 L	+15.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Yellow Submarine	49c	999.99$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	565	42.8%242 W · 323 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Zero Tenacity	53c	933$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.11	60	33.3%20 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Zero Tenacity	46c	868.89$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.91	1,272	45%572 W · 700 L	-40.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Zero Tenacity	50c	799.57$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.55	494	55.1%272 W · 222 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Yellow Submarine	55c	791.74$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$359.85	617	45.7%282 W · 335 L	-12.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Yellow Submarine	62c	791.33$488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.67	670	43.3%290 W · 380 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Zero Tenacity	40c	783.71$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.34	303	56.4%171 W · 132 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Zero Tenacity	50c	741.12$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.79	335	41.2%138 W · 197 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Yellow Submarine	52c	500$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	251	47.4%119 W · 132 L	+12.3wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Zero Tenacity	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	799	59.4%475 W · 324 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Zero Tenacity	44c	500$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	654	41.9%274 W · 380 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Zero Tenacity	44c	472.59$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.33	1,577	43.9%692 W · 885 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…0a00backed Zero Tenacity	49c	399.78$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.99	91	58.2%53 W · 38 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed Zero Tenacity	28c	379.12$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.86	400	47.5%190 W · 210 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Zero Tenacity	42c	355.92$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.25	551	47.5%262 W · 289 L	+22.3wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Zero Tenacity	36c	355.51$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.21	1,275	33.5%427 W · 848 L	-15.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Zero Tenacity	54c	346$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.84	379	45.9%174 W · 205 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Zero Tenacity	44c	300$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	562	43.2%243 W · 319 L	+14.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…5539backed Zero Tenacity	20c	295.52$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.1	174	54%94 W · 80 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Zero Tenacity	50c	278.51$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.5	132	28.8%38 W · 94 L	-9.7wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-40%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dba…b14dbacked Yellow Submarine	49c	247.56$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.73	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed Zero Tenacity	30c	242.9$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.79	359	48.2%173 W · 186 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Zero Tenacity	49c	215.14$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.47	306	47.4%145 W · 161 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Yellow Submarine	48c	201.83$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.95	552	51.6%285 W · 267 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Yellow Submarine	49c	198.64$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.71	460	49.8%229 W · 231 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7aab…15c5backed Zero Tenacity	51c	198.36$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.86	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked Yellow Submarine	56c	194.74$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.33	173	73.4%127 W · 46 L	+10.4wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Yellow Submarine	54c	194.11$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.29	1,248	44.4%554 W · 694 L	+17.0wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1863…6174backed Yellow Submarine	56c	175.25$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.11	304	60.2%183 W · 121 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Zero Tenacity	34c	169.48$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.62	536	34%182 W · 354 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Yellow Submarine	59c	146.34$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.47	286	50%143 W · 143 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c52…677dbacked Yellow Submarine	50c	145.5$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.75	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Zero Tenacity	52c	140.54$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.08	602	51.2%308 W · 294 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Zero Tenacity	30c	140$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	653	37.2%243 W · 410 L	-15.1wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Yellow Submarine	72c	136.56$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.24	216	50.9%110 W · 106 L	-25.3wins	-0.12per pick	63cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Zero Tenacity	51c	135$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.85	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	-4.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Zero Tenacity	51c	131.36$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	377	45.4%171 W · 206 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d36…51debacked Yellow Submarine	54c	127.01$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.69	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Yellow Submarine	49c	126.89$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.24	1,280	45%576 W · 704 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Zero Tenacity	25c	124.73$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.76	526	49.2%259 W · 267 L	+21.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Yellow Submarine	69c	124.34$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.97	388	55.2%214 W · 174 L	+29.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Yellow Submarine	48c	121.1$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.97	147	44.2%65 W · 82 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Zero Tenacity	13c	110.51$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	245	27.3%67 W · 178 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Yellow Submarine	60c	103.91$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.89	173	53.2%92 W · 81 L	+8.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7489…7c83backed Yellow Submarine	45c	102.02$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.11	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x984b…88fbbacked Yellow Submarine	61c	101.57$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.61	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	1,797	55.8%1,003 W · 794 L	+37.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked Zero Tenacity	51c	98.7$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.8	201	51.2%103 W · 98 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42e…59e1backed Yellow Submarine	70c	98.2$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.46	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Zero Tenacity	51c	95.16$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.53	366	54.1%198 W · 168 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Zero Tenacity	35c	67.22$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.28	1,034	16.3%169 W · 865 L	-158.1wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-51%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa18f…c57abacked Yellow Submarine	53c	63.37$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.57	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Yellow Submarine	80c	61.6$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.32	246	36.6%90 W · 156 L	-14.4wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Zero Tenacity	34c	61.36$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.86	209	54.5%114 W · 95 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed Yellow Submarine	74c	53.84$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.02	208	58.7%122 W · 86 L	+22.1wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Zero Tenacity	46c	51.96$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.9	1,521	37.9%576 W · 945 L	-57.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed Zero Tenacity	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-3.1wins	-0.21per pick	47cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Zero Tenacity	24c	49.07$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	2,378	47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L	+15.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02c0…d718backed Yellow Submarine	54c	45.2$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.01	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd49…515dbacked Zero Tenacity	46c	41.86$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	95	55.8%53 W · 42 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Yellow Submarine	50c	38.8$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.4	111	50.5%56 W · 55 L	+14.2wins	+0.13per pick	38cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xebf6…c629backed Yellow Submarine	49c	38.77$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.87	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x330b…60ccbacked Yellow Submarine	72c	37.21$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.35	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x786c…bdd5backed Yellow Submarine	54c	35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.16	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked Zero Tenacity	56c	34.77$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.47	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3492…983fbacked Yellow Submarine	55c	33.57$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.11	71	59.2%42 W · 29 L	+5.3wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0148…b61cbacked Yellow Submarine	56c	32.8$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.58	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0f5…9377backed Zero Tenacity	63c	31.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.56	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-3.4wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4470…c22ebacked Yellow Submarine	47c	30.9$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.38	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb19f…1c86backed Yellow Submarine	47c	30.88$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.37	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…0c28backed Yellow Submarine	54c	24.21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.15	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-3.7wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-14%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a8e…966ebacked Yellow Submarine	54c	22.95$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ea2…1766backed Yellow Submarine	56c	20.05$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.78	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-3.7wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb98a…0550backed Yellow Submarine	57c	19.48$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.38	9	100%9 W · 0 L	+2.9wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Yellow Submarine	62c	16.31$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.21	920	56.4%519 W · 401 L	+78.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group AYellow Submarine won
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Zero Tenacity (+1.5)Yellow Submarine won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event