MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a3509ac5b7fce79656673bb359a6f8a560afaf01732c58527e942ee2c7a05d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 2,581$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 2,279$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 1,894$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 1,422$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Philadelphia Phillies | 19c | 1,010$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.01 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 411.97$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.03 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 247.72$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 210.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 196.93$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 176$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 85.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 68.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 64.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 22c | 48.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…4a91backed Cleveland Guardians | 78c | 47.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 46.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 25.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…6190backed Cleveland Guardians | 78c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.