MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed166da3dcb75e9835ce10ad90e0ed98ea5525df81448a5078c9a7790a48cc0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3625…1187backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 6,595$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,595.49 | 379 | 53.6%203 W · 176 L | +18.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 3,884$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,231.14 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 2,504$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.4 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…0690backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 2,495$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.17 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 2,054$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 1,667$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.67 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 1,207$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.87 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 837.62$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.58 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 748$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.78 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 736.2$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.91 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 663.78$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.92 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 632.95$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.79 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 486$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.44 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 398.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 398.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.37 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…ce89backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 393.31$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.39 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 282.94$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 241.32$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a5…dd82backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 142.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…0b78backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 127.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…813ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 127.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e23ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 117.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 114.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Philadelphia Phillies | 76c | 112$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x826c…1468backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 106.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…7982backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 103.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322d…37febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 102.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 101$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 93.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 84.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…c83cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 79.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 78.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 68.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 57.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 54.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 40.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 31.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1641…a37fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 27.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…3005backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 19.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.