TailMyPicks

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Tennis · resolved market

Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Roberto Carballes Baenaof Francesco Maestrelli, Roberto Carballes Baena
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,879
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,995

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,879 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbbb…05a8backed Francesco Maestrelli52c9,675$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0007062.9%44 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde1d…44a6backed Roberto Carballes Baena58c3,448$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.2821244.3%94 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Roberto Carballes Baena72c2,760$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.3694068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Francesco Maestrelli42c2,301$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.118,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Roberto Carballes Baena43c1,492$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.154,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed Francesco Maestrelli47c1,250$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.514835.8%53 W · 95 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Roberto Carballes Baena75c1,211$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.141,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ae…c975backed Roberto Carballes Baena50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60021537.2%80 W · 135 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Roberto Carballes Baena47c1,195$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.166,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5839…2c33backed Roberto Carballes Baena66c1,053$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.0312554.4%68 W · 57 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Francesco Maestrelli21c862.08$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.82,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Roberto Carballes Baena59c795.16$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.395,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb58…a62ebacked Francesco Maestrelli67c766.67$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.6721767.7%147 W · 70 L-0.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf353…692abacked Roberto Carballes Baena33c606.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.068148.1%39 W · 42 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa7…3fbabacked Roberto Carballes Baena58c586.21$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.214042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked Francesco Maestrelli30c577.83$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17164537.2%240 W · 405 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Roberto Carballes Baena35c571.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.431,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Roberto Carballes Baena54c547.91$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.42,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Francesco Maestrelli33c499.75$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9285634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe741…a9d1backed Roberto Carballes Baena45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.4425948.6%126 W · 133 L-1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Roberto Carballes Baena63c383.44$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.488,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Roberto Carballes Baena68c367.69$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0127836.3%101 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Roberto Carballes Baena44c291.05$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.0211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x237e…a5f0backed Francesco Maestrelli39c269.58$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6919938.2%76 W · 123 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Francesco Maestrelli34c258$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.727,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Francesco Maestrelli34c234.21$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.637,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Francesco Maestrelli34c232.47$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.042,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c6e…542dbacked Roberto Carballes Baena70c230.16$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1619756.3%111 W · 86 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06e1…ecdbbacked Roberto Carballes Baena44c204.58$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.8248935.8%175 W · 314 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Francesco Maestrelli7c196.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8356827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Roberto Carballes Baena53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.681,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Francesco Maestrelli7c175.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.472,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Francesco Maestrelli29c172.35$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.132,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Roberto Carballes Baena58c170$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.450952.1%265 W · 244 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf9…be26backed Francesco Maestrelli66c168.32$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4943062.3%268 W · 162 L-0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Francesco Maestrelli55c164.46$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.711747%55 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Roberto Carballes Baena66c151.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.512,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3101…e57fbacked Francesco Maestrelli30c136.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0511243.8%49 W · 63 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Francesco Maestrelli31c135.22$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9243950.8%223 W · 216 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x125f…b7e8backed Roberto Carballes Baena71c128.04$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.559359.1%55 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Roberto Carballes Baena71c110.9$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.134,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Roberto Carballes Baena70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,09452.4%573 W · 521 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Roberto Carballes Baena34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.595846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d18…6f62backed Roberto Carballes Baena65c99.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3556062.5%350 W · 210 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Francesco Maestrelli31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed Roberto Carballes Baena66c96.19$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.719151.8%99 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ad…71acbacked Roberto Carballes Baena66c86.36$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3612959.7%77 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Francesco Maestrelli52c75.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4832240.7%131 W · 191 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Francesco Maestrelli23c72.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7158048.4%281 W · 299 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d3f…50b1backed Francesco Maestrelli19c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Francesco Maestrelli22c68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.964,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaaf…6188backed Roberto Carballes Baena46c65.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.251643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Francesco Maestrelli34c62.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.145,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce22…8914backed Francesco Maestrelli54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda1…7b5ebacked Roberto Carballes Baena72c55.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.492857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Francesco Maestrelli24c54.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.961,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Roberto Carballes Baena65c52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.21,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Roberto Carballes Baena57c51.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.259,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Roberto Carballes Baena68c47.28$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.124,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Roberto Carballes Baena30c46.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.451,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Roberto Carballes Baena67c44.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.56,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58be…2517backed Francesco Maestrelli47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011832.2%38 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Roberto Carballes Baena79c42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.822,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Francesco Maestrelli34c40.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.933,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891f…88bfbacked Roberto Carballes Baena56c40.77$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9417260.5%104 W · 68 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Roberto Carballes Baena66c37.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8830053.3%160 W · 140 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2df…0cadbacked Roberto Carballes Baena38c37.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.284537.8%17 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Roberto Carballes Baena36c32.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.083073.3%22 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad17…fcadbacked Francesco Maestrelli66c30.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e62…fd00backed Roberto Carballes Baena51c29.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2920347.3%96 W · 107 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe28a…9317backed Roberto Carballes Baena62c25.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.825261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf604…4976backed Roberto Carballes Baena59c24.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.164946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1caa…1d87backed Roberto Carballes Baena66c24.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.245180.4%41 W · 10 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9651…0488backed Roberto Carballes Baena66c18.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.186958%40 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbafb…3031backed Roberto Carballes Baena80c15.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.0333673.2%246 W · 90 L-15.2wins-0.05per pick78cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc04c…cebfbacked Roberto Carballes Baena78c14.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.167178.7%528 W · 143 L+49.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.