Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a52e7adb5ca33cb9623ec0516c9614e2cc6054d9131fbac09a931bc18a161f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 28c | 1,439$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.27 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,397$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.35 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 670$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.27 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 507.17$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 457$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 31c | 350$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 292.8$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 29c | 253.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 220.25$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 195.9$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 62c | 157.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 144.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 138.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 34c | 138.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a60…ea7dbacked Yes | 23c | 127.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 127.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 108.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 41c | 95.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 93.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 30c | 88.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 80.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 73.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 60c | 70.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked Yes | 18c | 69.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 32c | 69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 72c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 64.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…f229backed Yes | 44c | 62.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 32c | 60.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 59.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 53.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 36c | 47.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 40.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 28c | 36.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 76c | 35.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 66c | 31.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 30.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 62c | 29.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 27.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 24.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 24.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 66c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 64c | 17.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 75c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.