Music · resolved market
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a6fb976c94de734b07035413acb3e633f93c700b0cb9bb94e47de666dffb8d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,802 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 31c | 1,045$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 77c | 922.66$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.91 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 917.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 67c | 781.3$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.71 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…6068backed Yes | 2c | 735.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3052…232abacked Yes | 3c | 676.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Yes | 23c | 460.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4695…9d51backed No | 72c | 219.44$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…14ffbacked Yes | 46c | 207.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 204.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…c206backed Yes | 47c | 126.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 15c | 122.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…4478backed Yes | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 22c | 115$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 42c | 99.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 15c | 99.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412d…2e73backed Yes | 32c | 98.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…a2d5backed Yes | 39c | 89.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…146ebacked Yes | 16c | 88.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 69c | 64.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…8261backed No | 78c | 39.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 54c | 37.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…a9e6backed Yes | 79c | 30.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e06…f72bbacked No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 69c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "EoO - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Man I Need - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "NUEVAYoL - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.