Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a9d7d009b9eb64c428dbacb8c75e414ad1ca0f34fe1dd3bd0b847cdd03f53c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 78c | 357.66$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.75 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 29c | 258.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 45c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 179.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 66c | 160.71$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 18c | 148.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 126.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 28c | 126.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 23c | 120.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 116.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 114.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 72c | 112.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 69c | 107.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 75c | 104.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 100.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 23c | 94.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 27c | 88.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 82.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 19c | 77.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 19c | 76.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 78c | 70.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 77c | 65.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 26c | 63.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 51c | 54.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 59c | 52.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 73c | 42.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 49c | 41.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 57c | 35.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb563…26bfbacked Yes | 58c | 34.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 33.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 37c | 32.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 30.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 79c | 29.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 46c | 24.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 70c | 23.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 77c | 23.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 18.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked Yes | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 15.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 75c | 14.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…7e67backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.