UFC · resolved market
McGregor vs. Chandler canceled?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ae6330905fe0b680e270c62c12bb57764e560a037de9d6cfe6e4398641688e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,715$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 75c | 1,052$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.47 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed No | 78c | 1,025$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 31c | 957.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed No | 73c | 836.44$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 46c | 617.41$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf863…5bc1backed Yes | 20c | 401$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +409.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…1561backed No | 66c | 374.76$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 77c | 139.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 49c | 91.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked No | 66c | 90.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 46c | 90.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…031bbacked Yes | 45c | 85.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…5759backed No | 79c | 80.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…8095backed No | 67c | 46.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 47c | 39.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.