UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af59954048a051bdc2342aad2b9109e6e58b063b82086964fd324e1e5a787b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Yes | 35c | 1,471$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.91 | 203 | 48.3%98 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 27c | 787$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.49 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 36c | 663.52$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.49 | 171 | 50.9%87 W · 84 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed No | 73c | 604.85$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.44 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 31c | 455.61$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Yes | 36c | 361.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 357 | 64.7%231 W · 126 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes | 5c | 341.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…3ed7backed No | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 64c | 282$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…06bbbacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…e4edbacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed No | 69c | 112.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da2…22b6backed Yes | 36c | 91.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 35c | 74.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked No | 66c | 53.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…b0ccbacked No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…5f94backed No | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker (Heavyweight, Prelims)Valter Walker won
- Will Valter Walker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.