UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82024f407dc85725b535972d1dd0aa275ea6a2e7328c897276508b4f3b5c5457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Yes | 42c | 60,623$25,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,212.62 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 58c | 51,017$29,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,589.58 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 58c | 4,871$2,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,840.17 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 59c | 4,456$2,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,613.82 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 42c | 1,351$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.42 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc4…db58backed No | 58c | 1,292$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked Yes | 44c | 387$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.97 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 58c | 317.07$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…eef1backed Yes | 41c | 241.46$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…06bbbacked Yes | 43c | 233.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 54c | 205.27$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade3…b321backed Yes | 77c | 196.36$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed No | 61c | 164.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Yes | 40c | 124.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed No | 48c | 84.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…9a36backed No | 45c | 81.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55a…02cabacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 50c | 70.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…81dbbacked No | 52c | 69.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Yes | 41c | 52.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5859…73eabacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…65bdbacked Yes | 41c | 49.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…c8dfbacked Yes | 43c | 46.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fe…4920backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…ab75backed No | 59c | 40.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Yes | 44c | 40.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…e1ebbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…e6d9backed No | 58c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 56c | 29.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…4888backed Yes | 44c | 29.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 46c | 26.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…2a82backed No | 58c | 25.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker (Heavyweight, Prelims)Valter Walker won
- Will Valter Walker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.