CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Team Novaq (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7afc3c934dd5ccdd1d1146449aa9a6a322a20a56da673c8f185d7b846a98d167
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof HOTU, Team Novaq
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed Team Novaq | 25c | 17,192$4,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,296.87 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked HOTU | 79c | 8,510$6,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.75 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Novaq | 0c | 3,734$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Team Novaq | 3c | 3,110$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Novaq | 18c | 2,000$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.78 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed HOTU | 68c | 1,613$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.49 | 339 | 49%166 W · 173 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed HOTU | 79c | 1,495$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.47 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed HOTU | 76c | 1,235$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.29 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…2f3fbacked HOTU | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Team Novaq | 8c | 784.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 227 | 54.2%123 W · 104 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Team Novaq | 23c | 763.43$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.82 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…f3b0backed HOTU | 79c | 756.25$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.62 | 136 | 75%102 W · 34 L | +22.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9837backed HOTU | 68c | 700.88$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.28 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked HOTU | 79c | 604$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.64 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…9d85backed Team Novaq | 27c | 591.22$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Team Novaq | 9c | 450.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed HOTU | 80c | 295.46$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 970 | 40.7%395 W · 575 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed Team Novaq | 5c | 206.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…99fbbacked Team Novaq | 28c | 199.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed HOTU | 69c | 145.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed HOTU | 80c | 133.75$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a6…c09ebacked HOTU | 79c | 119$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed HOTU | 68c | 109.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 93 | 64.5%60 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…2fc7backed HOTU | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 434 | 42.2%183 W · 251 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Team Novaq | 32c | 99.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 211 | 39.3%83 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Team Novaq | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba9…2ccabacked HOTU | 79c | 77.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f42…5b96backed HOTU | 80c | 75.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 174 | 63.8%111 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed HOTU | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6f…3224backed HOTU | 78c | 74.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a67…0355backed HOTU | 79c | 74.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed HOTU | 79c | 73.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked HOTU | 68c | 65.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 242 | 49.2%119 W · 123 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…1fe4backed HOTU | 79c | 60.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed HOTU | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked HOTU | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…482cbacked HOTU | 79c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…6e6ebacked HOTU | 79c | 34.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…b85fbacked HOTU | 79c | 28.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed HOTU | 74c | 25.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed HOTU | 74c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed HOTU | 70c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…4f91backed HOTU | 79c | 18.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…ed39backed HOTU | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 79cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…ecb3backed HOTU | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 79cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Team Novaq (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Team Novaq - Map 1 WinnerHOTU won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Team Novaq - Map 2 WinnerTeam Novaq won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.