Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b1d6a0720136f6617f7563f9f328345320a7d5c502b3a0e0fb359b1aaa7d2d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 1,028$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 993.35$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 12c | 839.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 21c | 771.38$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 15c | 545.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 21c | 453.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 18c | 420.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked Yes | 20c | 344$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 22c | 320$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 9c | 188$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 171.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 6c | 154.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 150.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 14c | 141.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 21c | 140.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 19c | 118.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 9c | 112.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 9c | 106.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 105.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 75c | 98.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 78c | 97.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 14c | 91.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 21c | 90.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 88.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa61…97dabacked Yes | 14c | 85.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 24c | 80.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…a45abacked Yes | 15c | 71.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 16c | 68.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 16c | 62.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 77c | 57.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 74c | 49.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 79c | 38.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…95d3backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 37.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…2ed6backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 79c | 26.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4b…6ea9backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…4f66backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.