Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a14ee01dd40b0e0398a550c5756963ca0ac6025c87f414c7ba63b657571caaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 17c | 692.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 5c | 594.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 20c | 488.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 468.06$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 401.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 24c | 384$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 363.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 355.76$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…bfecbacked No | 79c | 311.53$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 305.68$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 239.48$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 238$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 13c | 228.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 5c | 203.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed Yes | 22c | 202.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 21c | 196.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 22c | 193.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 76c | 163$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 71c | 154.01$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 145.32$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 134.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 15c | 132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 11c | 131.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 126.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 123.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 22c | 120.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 24c | 111.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 109.58$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 15c | 102.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…f949backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked Yes | 15c | 93.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed Yes | 27c | 84.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 82.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 78.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 77.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 19c | 77.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 70.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 17c | 67.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 23c | 64.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…11b5backed Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 60.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 56.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 49.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 45.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 29c | 43.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 76c | 38.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 37.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 33.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 79c | 28.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 26.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 25.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 80c | 24.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 76c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…af84backed No | 78c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…2c0cbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 77c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.