Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81567f00c5519f801b7d3e839d74224eee83149fb3f1b51d7f4712ba9631a8f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 4c | 1,712$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 51c | 1,351$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.03 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 1,199$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 31c | 718.29$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.92 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 677.06$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 631.9$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.95 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 68c | 600$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.68 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 34c | 462.07$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed Yes | 65c | 458.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 374.47$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 22c | 338.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…ddddbacked No | 27c | 330.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 66c | 302.44$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 71c | 280.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 17c | 248.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 33c | 243.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 37c | 243.32$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 15c | 238.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 39c | 234.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.26 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 46c | 229$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 59c | 220$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 213.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 204.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 45c | 193.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 177.81$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 169.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 49c | 162.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 156.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 18c | 150.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 64c | 143.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 143.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 20c | 143.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 140$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 60c | 138.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 21c | 114.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 46c | 114.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 71c | 111.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 31c | 110.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 42c | 109.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 41c | 109$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 16c | 107.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 107.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 72c | 104.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 49c | 101.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 24c | 96.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 15c | 95.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 36c | 95.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 75c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 84.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 82.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 63c | 81.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 46c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 76.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 34c | 67.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…27a6backed No | 62c | 66.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 21c | 66.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 65.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 64.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 28c | 62.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 67c | 61.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 73c | 61.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 73c | 58.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 64c | 54.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…3bfdbacked No | 50c | 54.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…a5cabacked No | 50c | 54.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 41c | 53.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…f122backed No | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 30c | 52.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…aef1backed Yes | 57c | 51.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 45c | 50.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 52c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 49c | 47.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 69c | 45.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2834…d23abacked No | 45c | 41.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 74c | 41.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 66c | 40.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 66c | 40.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.