Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b28cd23a6a2c21b7314fb6b5bce281c276964ba89cb98ae068fd6fbed1f5ad7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 5c | 908.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bff…882cbacked Yes | 3c | 560.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 499.34$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…20b3backed Yes | 40c | 478.19$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 264.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 41c | 249.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 29c | 197.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 193.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 60c | 181.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 43c | 174.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 29c | 153.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 151.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 39c | 132.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 68c | 131.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 123.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 115.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 52c | 115.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 35c | 103.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 97.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 25c | 97.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…4329backed Yes | 34c | 81.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 80.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 41c | 79.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 72.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 24c | 65.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 20c | 60.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a79…1e21backed Yes | 52c | 50.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 50.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 49.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 26c | 42.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed Yes | 27c | 39.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 28c | 38.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 37.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 62c | 33.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 62c | 33.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 32.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 47c | 32.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 62c | 31.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed Yes | 45c | 31.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…e43bbacked Yes | 47c | 30.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b3…b6efbacked Yes | 57c | 29.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 56c | 28.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 76c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 77c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…2cd7backed No | 46c | 26.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 75c | 25.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 25.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 62c | 24.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3c…c86abacked No | 48c | 23.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 68c | 23.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 60c | 20.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x157d…a07ebacked Yes | 58c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 72c | 15.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.